2008/01/30

Mickey Mouse's Philosophy

The editorial of today's Hong Kong Economic Journal said US Fed chief Ben Bernanke would have to cut interest rates tonight as if a recession would be the end of the world. i would call such an attitude "Mickey Mouse's Philosophy". A doll that it is, Mickey Mouse always smiles, as if he can never allow himself to feel bad. But what's wrong for feeling bad? It is completely natural and inevitable. It even helps us to set ourselves straight. Like the bad feel, despite its hardship, recession serves that end, after decades of overconsumption. Bernanke, by keeping American smiling for the time being, is to bring them a more pain in the future. The extension of a business cycle could save the presidency of a political party, but it would be done at the expense of all people, including Americans and all others. "It is the economy, stupid!" as the Bill Clinton campaign once cried. What Mr. Bernanke seems to be devoted to, and what the newspaper ironically seems to approve, is merely the timing of a business cycle, not the economy -- people's well-being.

2008/01/22

勿搏

在大跌市時搏反彈是非常之危險的事,這個時期,市場情緒轉得好快,大家都不太清楚跌市「原因」(其實「原因」每次都是同一個,就是原先的估值過高),但壞消息通常是大跌市之後才出現,當人開始為大跌市找解釋,用來理順市況,和當證卷商陸續將原先高估了的企業盈利增長預測調低,市場情緒將愈來愈差。更甚者,大跌市本身亦足以壞事,即拖累經濟,例如令某些企業爆保。Don't catch a falling knife,要買股票,來日方長。

2008/01/19

E.T.

在這個如常地悠閒的星期六早上,茶怪落樓吃過早餐,喝過奶茶,回家看雜誌,Reason月刊今期專題報導Ron Paul,節錄了這位有點cranky的共和黨候選人的一段演說內容,講述三件他不會幹的事件,對茶怪來說像詩一般美妙。第一:「I don't want to run your life. We all have different values. I wouldn't know how to do it, I don't have the authority under the Constitution, and I don't have the moral right.」,第二:「I don't want to run the economy. People run the economy in a free society.」,第三:「I don't want to run the world.... We don't need to be imposing ourselves around the world.」Paul輸硬了,但他的想法正引起很多美國人,特別是年青人的回響。在美國主流政治立場傾向「乜都關政府事」時,當大部分政客都說「選我就乜都惦」,有評論員戲言說Paul是E.T.外星人,因為他的智慧在地球不管用。

2008/01/17

衰退

談到經濟前景,評論員愛說明經濟衰退的學術定義,說衰退是本地生產總值連續二季錄得負增長,如果你攪不清甚麼是生產總值,負增長是否等同減少等難題,不打緊,茶怪聽過對衰退的一個簡單解釋: 「衰退是當你的鄰居失業了。」較衰退嚴重的,是肅條,肅條是甚麼? 「肅條是當你自己失業了。」聽來有道理,誰會關心GDP或CPI這些英文字母,較自己的工作和生計更深? 那麼,經濟何時才算復甦? 茶怪的答案是:「復甦是當特首失業了。」有歷史為證。

現在說香港將出現衰退不是危言聳聽,經濟週期有起有落是必然的,問題是何時,茶怪不知道,但可以想像的,是如果衰退來臨,對香港的打擊較以往大,原因是香港高度集中依賴金融業,其他經濟支柱如物流和建築軟弱,亦沒有發展新的行業,衰退對金融業打擊甚大,令人擔心。

2008/01/09

新利是

今年茶怪準備派利是封人民幣。好處有三個。第一,人民幣較港幣高水,收利是者可以賺個溢價,即廿元變廿一個幾。第二,香港大部分商戶暫時未接受人民幣,小朋友不可以即時花掉利是錢,封人民幣即是鼓勵儲蓄習慣,待長大成人才用,到時升值很多了,小朋友的家長一定好喜歡。第三,是最重要的,人民幣一圓都是紙幣,派一元都可以係「軟嘢」,經濟學上的Free to choose,就係呢個道理。不過呢個人民幣利是計劃,昨晚俾茶太ban咗,特區政府公民教育力度不足之過也。

2008/01/08

有用的function II

Google finance好好用,你毋須查股票代號,只須輸入公司名稱,全世界的股票也可輕易找到。股價圖好user-friendly,配合新聞紀錄,何時發生甚麼事一目瞭然。還有,列出相關公司,作比較,仲有有關公司的討論區。好過yahoo finance多多聲,google的業務擴張,相信bloomberg和reuters也感受到威脅。如果你有興趣,不防用佢研究下starbucks,近排股價跌得厲害。