16x

恆指21,000，從高位回落三分一，市盈率16倍，算唔算平?

右邊的圖顯示過去三十幾年，每月市盈率的分佈 (刻度顯示的數字是範圍的上限，例如市盈率有90個月是介乎14至16倍。睇唔清楚，click落去就會放大。)從歷史數據看，16倍市盈率不算特別平，當然，你可以舉出十個理由，指「今次不一樣」。嚴格來說，市場從來沒有一次是「一樣」的，但歷史往往給我們一些值得參考的資料。

猜燈謎

前美聯儲局主席格林斯平在位期間說話愛轉彎活角，華爾街希望從他的言論中猜測未來的利率變動，格老往往帶銀行家遊花園，在其自傳The Age of Turbulence中，格老打破慣例，用簡單的筆法述事和評論，令人欣喜，唯獨有一句特別難明: "There is little we can do to avoid the easing of disinflation." 但茶怪認為這句才是全書的精髓所在，正是格林斯平最想帶出的訊息，中文可以直譯為「要避免舒緩反通脹，我們可以做的不多。」究竟這句點解?

淫照罪

有關淫照風波，今期東周刊的社論引用聖經，茶怪覺得真有意思，聖經原文是這樣的:

文士和法利賽人帶著一個行淫時被拿的婦人來，叫他站在當中，就對耶穌說：「夫子，這婦人是正行淫之時被拿的。摩西在律法上吩咐我們把這樣的婦人用石頭打死。你說該把他怎麼樣呢？」他們說這話，乃試探耶穌，要得著告他的把柄。耶穌卻彎著腰，用指頭在地上畫字。他們還是不住的問他，耶穌就直起腰來，對他們說：「你們中間誰是沒有罪的，誰就可以先拿石頭打他。」於是又彎著腰，用指頭在地上畫字。他們聽見這話，就從老到少，一個一個的都出去了，只剩下耶穌一人，還有那婦人仍然站在當中。耶穌就直起腰來，對他說：「婦人，那些人在哪裡呢？沒有人定你的罪嗎？」他說：「主啊，沒有。」耶穌說：「我也不定你的罪。去吧，從此不要再犯罪了！」

A Rat Tale

The coming of the Year of the Rat has reminded me about an old book "Who moved my cheese", which depicts a tale about rats. A pair of rats, A and B, one day found a slice of cheese big enough for them to eat for quite a long time. The next few days, they came back and took their bite. All went fine until one day, for no reason, the cheese just disappeared. Rats A and B reacted differently. Rat A broke down and cried, moaning about his misery. He kept coming back, hoping to see the cheese again, but in vain day after day. Rat B forgot about the moved cheese and go ahead to look for new food somewhere else. In the end, Rat B found another cheese while Rat A remained in his bad patch. Simple a story that it is, the book has sold millions of copies. It makes a worthy point -- don't trap yourself in the past, always look forward. Wish you have a wonderful new year.

New era, what new era

Every time a major boom of the stock market nears an end, commentators come up with a new theory that claims the arrival of a "new era", which reflects human being's desire to defeat recession for good. Just before the market crash in 1929, famous economist Irving Fisher did that, announcing that the then newly established Federal Reserve in the U.S. would do the job. By the market meltdown in 2000, it was the information technology that acted the one-time hero. The 2007 version was taken over by the theory of decoupling. With "there ain't no such thing as a free lunch" being an economic principle, the market rule should be: "There ain't no such thing as a 'new era'". A good thing about Chinese calendar is that it reminds us of the cycling of the nature. The family of twelve animals takes turn. Now, it is rat that is coming back. Unfortunately, Western calendar adds cardinal numbers -- 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and so on, as if time mindlessly shuttles us toward unmanned space of the universe.

Mickey Mouse's Philosophy

The editorial of today's Hong Kong Economic Journal said US Fed chief Ben Bernanke would have to cut interest rates tonight as if a recession would be the end of the world. i would call such an attitude "Mickey Mouse's Philosophy". A doll that it is, Mickey Mouse always smiles, as if he can never allow himself to feel bad. But what's wrong for feeling bad? It is completely natural and inevitable. It even helps us to set ourselves straight. Like the bad feel, despite its hardship, recession serves that end, after decades of overconsumption. Bernanke, by keeping American smiling for the time being, is to bring them a more pain in the future. The extension of a business cycle could save the presidency of a political party, but it would be done at the expense of all people, including Americans and all others. "It is the economy, stupid!" as the Bill Clinton campaign once cried. What Mr. Bernanke seems to be devoted to, and what the newspaper ironically seems to approve, is merely the timing of a business cycle, not the economy -- people's well-being.

我托，我托托托

勿搏

在大跌市時搏反彈是非常之危險的事，這個時期，市場情緒轉得好快，大家都不太清楚跌市「原因」(其實「原因」每次都是同一個，就是原先的估值過高)，但壞消息通常是大跌市之後才出現，當人開始為大跌市找解釋，用來理順市況，和當證卷商陸續將原先高估了的企業盈利增長預測調低，市場情緒將愈來愈差。更甚者，大跌市本身亦足以壞事，即拖累經濟，例如令某些企業爆保。Don't catch a falling knife，要買股票，來日方長。

E.T.

在這個如常地悠閒的星期六早上，茶怪落樓吃過早餐，喝過奶茶，回家看雜誌，Reason月刊今期專題報導Ron Paul，節錄了這位有點cranky的共和黨候選人的一段演說內容，講述三件他不會幹的事件，對茶怪來說像詩一般美妙。第一:「I don't want to run your life. We all have different values. I wouldn't know how to do it, I don't have the authority under the Constitution, and I don't have the moral right.」，第二:「I don't want to run the economy. People run the economy in a free society.」，第三:「I don't want to run the world.... We don't need to be imposing ourselves around the world.」Paul輸硬了，但他的想法正引起很多美國人，特別是年青人的回響。在美國主流政治立場傾向「乜都關政府事」時，當大部分政客都說「選我就乜都惦」，有評論員戲言說Paul是E.T.外星人，因為他的智慧在地球不管用。

衰退

談到經濟前景，評論員愛說明經濟衰退的學術定義，說衰退是本地生產總值連續二季錄得負增長，如果你攪不清甚麼是生產總值，負增長是否等同減少等難題，不打緊，茶怪聽過對衰退的一個簡單解釋: 「衰退是當你的鄰居失業了。」較衰退嚴重的，是肅條，肅條是甚麼? 「肅條是當你自己失業了。」聽來有道理，誰會關心GDP或CPI這些英文字母，較自己的工作和生計更深? 那麼，經濟何時才算復甦? 茶怪的答案是:「復甦是當特首失業了。」有歷史為證。

現在說香港將出現衰退不是危言聳聽，經濟週期有起有落是必然的，問題是何時，茶怪不知道，但可以想像的，是如果衰退來臨，對香港的打擊較以往大，原因是香港高度集中依賴金融業，其他經濟支柱如物流和建築軟弱，亦沒有發展新的行業，衰退對金融業打擊甚大，令人擔心。

新利是

今年茶怪準備派利是封人民幣。好處有三個。第一，人民幣較港幣高水，收利是者可以賺個溢價，即廿元變廿一個幾。第二，香港大部分商戶暫時未接受人民幣，小朋友不可以即時花掉利是錢，封人民幣即是鼓勵儲蓄習慣，待長大成人才用，到時升值很多了，小朋友的家長一定好喜歡。第三，是最重要的，人民幣一圓都是紙幣，派一元都可以係「軟嘢」，經濟學上的Free to choose，就係呢個道理。不過呢個人民幣利是計劃，昨晚俾茶太ban咗，特區政府公民教育力度不足之過也。

有用的function II

Google finance好好用，你毋須查股票代號，只須輸入公司名稱，全世界的股票也可輕易找到。股價圖好user-friendly，配合新聞紀錄，何時發生甚麼事一目瞭然。還有，列出相關公司，作比較，仲有有關公司的討論區。好過yahoo finance多多聲，google的業務擴張，相信bloomberg和reuters也感受到威脅。如果你有興趣，不防用佢研究下starbucks，近排股價跌得厲害。

油

石油是網友老麥所謂「投資三寶: 黃金、石油和人民幣」之中，茶怪最看淡的，與黃金一樣，石油作為商品，其價格將受惠於全球貨幣供應擴張而上升，國際政治局勢不穩，亦刺激油價向上，油價再升幾元，破一百美元是不足為奇，問題是可以再升多少，金和油最大的分別是油是有用的，金係古玩、油係電視機，美國這個石油進口大國的經濟增長放緩是對油的一大隱憂，最者，電視機愈貴，愈多新款推出，現在有高清電視，很多人想換掉舊電視。貴油將加速新科技的發明，提煉玉米代替石油、新車更慳油甚至用電力推動，聽起來好像很遙遠，但其實一直在進行中，自七十年代中，已發展國家經濟產出對油的依賴程度已減半。當然，以上論點，當油價在八十元時已存在，油價照升，幾貴至誘使新發明加得夠快? 茶怪唔知，不過對人類的智慧有信心。

人民幣

中國人民銀行今年加息六次，反映中央防治經濟過熱的決心，食品脤價影響民生，特別值得關注。人民幣利率有七厘半，美國兩年期國庫債券息率只有三厘，人民幣暫時不能自由兌換，投資者不能就息差套利，但中國投資市場逐步開放，人民幣上升動力將會加劇。食物和原料價格急升，扣除食物和共用成本，中國消費物價指數只有1%升幅，顯示有產能過盛跡象，再加上固定資產投資佔國民生產總值四成，消費和出口追不上固定資產，會造成閒置，試想一個城市猛起遊樂場(固定資產)但沒有人去玩。美國經濟前景不明朗，影響中國出口，相信中國會減慢加息步伐去保住內部消費，在貿易赤字持續的情況下，政策選擇不多，唯有加快人民幣升值速度，怕影響出口競爭力? 不會，因為其他出口國的貨幣也在上升，如泰國、印尼和印度，只要中國不走得太前問題不大。

金

2008年，茶怪看好黃金，美聯儲局受政治勢力影響大印美鈔，其他中央銀行又因勢因勢利導放寬銀根，貨幣供應遠遠跑贏經濟增長，令全球主要貨幣貶值。在多銀紙追逐有限產品服務的情況下，通漲壓力增加，可是，貿易全球化加上科技進步，提升了普遍產品和服務的生產效率，成本的減省抵銷了物價因貨幣貶值而上升的壓力，因此，消費物價指數一直維持在可以接受的水平，除了中國，其他主要工業國沒有政治壓力，要收緊銀根。可是，消費物價指數只反映經濟上的部份價格，以更宏觀的價格來看，包括地產、股票、債券和貨品，貨品包括石油、黃金、大豆等，的漲價來看，我們早以進入高通脹時代。全球央行和投資者都為持有美鈔怨聲載道，持其他貨幣一樣是貶值的，黃金這個幾千年來傳統的投資，是自然的選擇。

聖誕樹

未收工

負利率時代，即係我要買定出年d禮物啦!

Atlas Shrugged

Ayn Rand是自由主義的倡導者，前美國聯儲局主席格林斯平也是她的學生，其小說Atlas Shrugged，講述社會如何利用仁義道德去壓制有能者的成就，荷里活剛剛開拍其電影版，女主角是Angelina Jolie。小說其中一節，說到一位母親，要求其當鋼材企業家的兒子，聘請一事無成的胞弟，企業家拒絕，說胞弟對公司沒有好處，母親直指他冷血、自私和唯利是圖，不顧兄弟之情，罵道: "That's your cruelty, that's what's mean and selfish about you. If you loved your brother, you'd give him a job he didn't deserve, precisely because he didn't deserve it -- that would be true love and kindness and brotherhood. Else what's love for? If a man deserves a job, there's no virtue in giving it to him. Virtue is the giving of the undeserved."企業家聽罷，嚇呆了，然後說: "Mother, you don't know what you're saying. I'm not able ever to despise you enough to believe that you mean it." Rand認為，人應該為自己的利益發揮自己的所長，就是對社會最大的貢獻，過程中，物質回報是必須的，這樣才令付出和接受者活得有尊嚴。

科士打

從來沒有過問好友科士打洋名的由來，想大概是來自一個澳洲啤酒品牌名稱，因為他喜歡飲啤酒。改名要正正經經的，斷不能叫喜力、藍妹吧。上周末他帶同幾位兄弟到拍拖多年的女友美琪家門，鬧著要娶她過門，誰知率性的科士打怎也喊不出一句「我愛您」來。當夜婚宴，他咬緊口中的箱頭筆，在美琪的身上寫上「愛很簡單」四個大字，然後高唱陶"吉吉"的同名情歌，唱著: 「I love you...」，賓客見笑新郎哥的歌喉之餘更佩服他的勇氣，新娘子喜極而泣。Foster在字典上，解作關懷、照顧的意思。

Ron Paul

共和黨候選人Ron Paul是2008年美國總統黨選的大冷門，民望遠遠落後於前紐約市市長朱利安尼，但在互聯網上，他的支持度出奇地高，網上籌款更破歷史紀錄，為什麼美國選民對這位1988年大選大敗者如此感興趣?

今期BusinessWeek刊登了CNBC女主播Maria Bartiromo對Paul的專訪，其中可能可以看出端倪。以下轉載了訪問中最後二條問答:

You want to take the troops out of Iraq, but what about Iran? What do we do if other nations turn hostile?

I'd treat them something like what we did with the Soviets. I was called to military duty [as a U.S. Air Force flight surgeon] in the '60s when they were in Cuba, and they had 40,000 nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles, and we didn't have to fight them. We didn't have to invade their country. But to deal with terrorism, we can't solve the problem if we don't understand why they [attack us]. And they don't come because we're free and prosperous. They don't go after Switzerland and Sweden and Canada. They come after us because we've occupied their land, and instead of reversing our foreign policy after 9/11, we made it worse by invading two more countries and then threatening a third. Why wouldn't they be angry at us? It would be absolutely bizarre if they weren't. We've been meddling over there for more than 50 years. We overthrew a democratically elected government in Iran in 1953; we were Saddam Hussein's ally and encouraged him to invade Iran. If I was an Iranian, I'd be annoyed myself, you know. So we need to change our policy, and I think we would reduce the danger.

You have vehement new supporters. What's driving the sudden interest in your candidacy?

I think they're sick and tired of what they're getting. They've lost all trust and faith in the government. They believe in the American Dream, and they're getting a nightmare. And they're rallying behind the program I've been working on for 30 years—defending the Constitution, limited government, free markets, sound money, and self-reliance; believing people can take care of themselves better than government can. The nanny state doesn't work, the police state doesn't work, and neither does the warfare. And they know it.