2007/10/29
宇宙一刻
Cosmos Farm是一家連全球衛星定位系統也探測不到的北海道民宿。茶怪與內子開了大半天車在傍晚時份到達，在大門口處理好鞋子後，老闆娘介紹店內環境，地下主要是食堂、廚房和浴室。食堂有四張餐桌和一個小火爐，食堂的一角是供客人閒息的區間，設有梳化、鋼琴、圖書和棋子，咖啡茶水免費供應，木板階梯通往二樓的六間客房，老闆娘帶著微笑，不時點頭，看著日本人的慊恭有禮，無法想像他們竟然未為二次大戰時所作的暴行道歉，茶怪當然沒開口，畢竟老闆娘大概未見過有香港人是不祟尚日本的。房間內有兩張床，床舖整齊，床中間隔著一個窗，外面是一片田野，遠處有紅黃色的楓葉，太陽已經下山了，景物變得暗淡，有貓頭鷹噢噢地鳴，老闆娘說晚飯在六時半，然後走回廚房，兩口子安頓好也跟著落樓，待在梳化上，茶怪隨手拿起一本風景影集，內子指著問茶怪懂得把雪地景色拍得如此美麗嗎? 那張晚霞又是怎樣拍的? 茶怪答道全都很簡易，就是這樣那樣然後又如何如何。
2007/10/17
What's new at La Mancha
讓茶怪介紹左邊的新增功能--"shared items"，這是茶怪搜羅不同新聞網站和個人網誌的有趣文章，希望你欣賞，以今日為例，金融時報的專欄作家說他對經濟預測的看法，他認為人無法預測未來，原因是我們連影響未來的變數--the unknown unknowns--也不知曉。這個符合茶怪早前的文章"Fool No One"，指出經濟政策偏重某行業的弊端，就是你不能預測未來。茶怪不是只post支持自己論點的文章，立場鮮明的量子今日分析立法會補選，值得細閱。還有華爾街日報專欄說地球溫化不應恐慌，Joe Ko談宿命論，都不容錯過。特別是一篇華爾街日報說環保汽車的文章，茶怪一看:「得!」，是指那架車，一看你就知為何Toyota現有的環保車唔得，有了這架快過Porsche嘅新環保跑車，茶怪相信環保汽車很快便普及。
2007/10/15
2007/10/14
曾民主
曾蔭權說極端民主會帶來文化大革命，即使一日後為言論道歉，但已刺痛了中央的神經，因為文革的罪行雖然已得到定論，是仍然是中共的忌諱，言論政治不正確。即使從邏輯來說，也有問題，文革是源於極權統治，是不爭的事實。如果曾蔭權想提出那民主的弊端，可以參考茶怪早前的文章，指民主可能限制自由，即凡事以少數服從多數，少數的自由便受損，如果樣樣事情都集團決定，任何人總會在某些範疇上成為少數，即每個人的自由也會受損。雖然是有缺點，茶怪相信，民主已經是較其他的制度好，因為用投票填form表決必須表決的事，較暴力好。茶怪更不同意，特首說民主會削弱社會穩定和政府效率，因為沒有民主，社會會更不穩、政府更冇效率。多謝，特首帶起民主話題，讓港人熱烈討論。
2007/10/10
創意春秋
人說秦始皇統一中國好，統一文字和度量衡，使中國成為大國，不致像歐洲那樣四分五列。茶怪想，四分五列都不算差，歐洲發起工業革命，促進了人類生活。中國具創建而又影響最深遠的思想，茶怪想，是孔子的儒家、老子的道家和孫武的孫子兵法，全部出生於春秋時期，即秦始皇的統一大業之前，中國不是無創意，不過只集中於統一之前。隋唐盛勢的詩詞歌賦固然好，但茶怪有時想，如果李白、杜甫肯用10%的智商去研究科學，哪有甚麼飛機太空船發明不來? 網友高先生對茶怪說: 中國歷代一國獨大，日子過得安穩，令人失去奮鬥心。茶怪想不無道理。連網友量子推崇備至的毛澤東戰略，也是在亂世中出台，時勢造英雄，又可能時局啟發人的思想，但茶怪再想，創意在春秋，有一個好簡單的原因 -- 「機會」。孔子若果生於統一後的中國，即使天才橫溢，即使科舉如何公平，你的機會只得一個，只要京城一個不欣賞你，你就完了。幸好孔子生於四分五列的時代，東家唔打打西家，機會眾多，錯了有機會再來，你至敢試，要試完再試，至有可能產生創意。茶怪不是鼓吹國家分列，暢銷書所言，廿一世紀世界是平的，中國的國際來往較十九世紀的歐洲國家更多，中國面對的，絕非古時單一獨大的模式，茶怪想問: 以秦始皇的由上而下統一化的思維方式，是否最適合?
2007/10/09
Fool no one
Hong Kong's calm toward the government's market intervention surprised me. The media celebrated the intervention, not criticized it. Many newspapers recommended readers follow suit -- buy HKEx, as the government had bought it and would probably buy more. Many people just could not resist the idea when a government official revealed that the purchase of HKEx was to prepare an alliance between the stock markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong.
When the stock market hit all-time high, we cared less about the West Kowloon project and democracy movements overseas than they used to. We asked fewer questions for the intervening government than we did in 1998, the last time the government intervened to defend our financial system. Indeed, we should have now asked more.
Last time, i mentioned that a discretionary intervention would cause more problems than a forced one. The government interfered our freedom of pricing, distorting the pricing function of market.
Many people believe that the financial sector is our future. That maintenance of Hong Kong's status of a global financial center is our top priority has become the consensus. If we are to strengthen our position, and if a cooperation with Shanghai is what it takes, the government officials' logics follows, we got to deal with Shanghai in the Shanghai way -- cooperation through government bureaucrats.
i believe this is illogical for three reasons.
First, the forming of any alliance between the Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges is not necessarily beneficial. The alliance would deter competition between the two exchanges. It is through the rivalry race between each other that the two cities simultaneous improve the efficiency of fundraising and safeguarding of assets.
Second, even if the alliance is beneficial, an arragement among private sector is more appropriate. If Hong Kong serves its political role as a special administrative region to show capitalism for China, which is on its own way to opening up, we should show Shanghai how market works -- cooperation through private sector, not the other way around.
Above all, a government intervention is fixing an agenda that doesn't even exist all at. Free market is necessary for a sustained economic development. A ticket to economic evolution outweighs a trophy of the financial sector. If we were made to choose between the two, we'd better make no mistake.
Even though the financial sector is important to us, it doesn't mean that the government has to do anything on it. Free market will decide whether or not the financial sector will remain as important tomorrow. Any bureaucratic measure runs the risks misleading the economy.
It is amazing to see how easy it is for human beings predicting the future to overestimate the continuity of the present situation and underestimate the variables down the road. Every year, when the English football season ends, a survey is conducted to ask people to predict the champion for the next season. It almost always turns out that the most-hopeful team is exactly the champion for the past reason. The survey is pointless, useless in prediction.
Nobody knows which industry will be the most important two decades from now, as nobody knew in 1987 the financial sector would become what it is today.
Use the Hang Seng Index as a proxy to the Hong Kong economy. The index constituents are Hong Kong's largest listed companies, and composition of this elite class has changed dramatically over the past twenty years.
Out of the 33 index constituents in October 1987, only 16 have stayed since. More than a half has gone. Those faded stars included a cement company, an aircraft engineering company, a dairy company, television broadcaster and a pair of bus operators. Some of those having stayed have also changed their business focus. For instance, PCCW, formerly known as HK Telephone, operates not only telephone lines, as it used to, but also computer broadband, mobile phone networks and cable-television.
Yes, the Hong Kong economy has experienced "structural changes", as government officials put it. Since 1987, factories moved across the border, the property market collapsed and China boomed. Hong Kong economic structure has changed during that period. When didn't it?
However awkward it seemed for the past two decades, the preceding 20-year period, from 1967 through 1987, marked yet another long list of historic events. And the change of HSI constituents was just as dramatic. During that period, again, a total of 16 big boys dropped out from the then-32-constituent index. They included a beer brewer, a tram operator, a dock and a pair of cross-harbor ferry operators.
If half of the current index constituents will go in the next two decades, what are the new companies and what opportunities will they create? How will the current index constituents shift its business and how will new technology shape our economy?
Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. Free market doesn't provide perfect foresight either. But free market provides the flexibility and guidance for changes that government planning cannot.
Imagine the government in 1967 mistook beer brewery industry as the winner and devoted all resources to it. The government's favoritism would attract many school graduates into the bartender career. Hong Kong would have built an extended Lane Kwai Fong, and that's it.
Is the global financial center status the ultimate destination for every modern city? Not necessarily, Boston, the 19th-century financial center, has evolved to foster some of the world's best universities and technology research institutes. And the living standards there are among the world's best.
Now, it doesn't looks as catastrophic as the government suggests for Hong Kong to lose the status of global financial center. Let the market decide. By doing so, people preserve the freedom to price assets so that resources, capital and human, are directed to the best ends.
If Hong Kong strives for an even greater global financial center, the details for how it actually works require business minds and entrepreneurial guts from the private sector, not the government.
Hong Kong's future is anybody's imagination, but the road of planning is likely to lead to a dead end.
HSI Constituents in 1967
Allied Inv
China Light
China Provident
City Hotels
Dairy Farm
G I Cement
HK & China Gas
HK & S Hotels
HK Aircraft
HK Bank
HK Dock
HK Electric
HK Land
HK Realty 'A'
HK Telephone
HK Tramways
HK Wharf
HK Yaumati
Hutchison
Jar Matheson
Jar Securities
Kln Motor Bus
Lane Crawford 'A'
Nanyang
San Miguel
S-Sea Textile
Star Ferry
Swire Pacific 'A'
Tex Alliance
W Marden 'A'
W Maritime 'A'
Watsons
Copyrights Quamnet
When the stock market hit all-time high, we cared less about the West Kowloon project and democracy movements overseas than they used to. We asked fewer questions for the intervening government than we did in 1998, the last time the government intervened to defend our financial system. Indeed, we should have now asked more.
Last time, i mentioned that a discretionary intervention would cause more problems than a forced one. The government interfered our freedom of pricing, distorting the pricing function of market.
Many people believe that the financial sector is our future. That maintenance of Hong Kong's status of a global financial center is our top priority has become the consensus. If we are to strengthen our position, and if a cooperation with Shanghai is what it takes, the government officials' logics follows, we got to deal with Shanghai in the Shanghai way -- cooperation through government bureaucrats.
i believe this is illogical for three reasons.
First, the forming of any alliance between the Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges is not necessarily beneficial. The alliance would deter competition between the two exchanges. It is through the rivalry race between each other that the two cities simultaneous improve the efficiency of fundraising and safeguarding of assets.
Second, even if the alliance is beneficial, an arragement among private sector is more appropriate. If Hong Kong serves its political role as a special administrative region to show capitalism for China, which is on its own way to opening up, we should show Shanghai how market works -- cooperation through private sector, not the other way around.
Above all, a government intervention is fixing an agenda that doesn't even exist all at. Free market is necessary for a sustained economic development. A ticket to economic evolution outweighs a trophy of the financial sector. If we were made to choose between the two, we'd better make no mistake.
Even though the financial sector is important to us, it doesn't mean that the government has to do anything on it. Free market will decide whether or not the financial sector will remain as important tomorrow. Any bureaucratic measure runs the risks misleading the economy.
It is amazing to see how easy it is for human beings predicting the future to overestimate the continuity of the present situation and underestimate the variables down the road. Every year, when the English football season ends, a survey is conducted to ask people to predict the champion for the next season. It almost always turns out that the most-hopeful team is exactly the champion for the past reason. The survey is pointless, useless in prediction.
Nobody knows which industry will be the most important two decades from now, as nobody knew in 1987 the financial sector would become what it is today.
Use the Hang Seng Index as a proxy to the Hong Kong economy. The index constituents are Hong Kong's largest listed companies, and composition of this elite class has changed dramatically over the past twenty years.
Out of the 33 index constituents in October 1987, only 16 have stayed since. More than a half has gone. Those faded stars included a cement company, an aircraft engineering company, a dairy company, television broadcaster and a pair of bus operators. Some of those having stayed have also changed their business focus. For instance, PCCW, formerly known as HK Telephone, operates not only telephone lines, as it used to, but also computer broadband, mobile phone networks and cable-television.
Yes, the Hong Kong economy has experienced "structural changes", as government officials put it. Since 1987, factories moved across the border, the property market collapsed and China boomed. Hong Kong economic structure has changed during that period. When didn't it?
However awkward it seemed for the past two decades, the preceding 20-year period, from 1967 through 1987, marked yet another long list of historic events. And the change of HSI constituents was just as dramatic. During that period, again, a total of 16 big boys dropped out from the then-32-constituent index. They included a beer brewer, a tram operator, a dock and a pair of cross-harbor ferry operators.
If half of the current index constituents will go in the next two decades, what are the new companies and what opportunities will they create? How will the current index constituents shift its business and how will new technology shape our economy?
Uncertainty is the only certainty there is. Free market doesn't provide perfect foresight either. But free market provides the flexibility and guidance for changes that government planning cannot.
Imagine the government in 1967 mistook beer brewery industry as the winner and devoted all resources to it. The government's favoritism would attract many school graduates into the bartender career. Hong Kong would have built an extended Lane Kwai Fong, and that's it.
Is the global financial center status the ultimate destination for every modern city? Not necessarily, Boston, the 19th-century financial center, has evolved to foster some of the world's best universities and technology research institutes. And the living standards there are among the world's best.
Now, it doesn't looks as catastrophic as the government suggests for Hong Kong to lose the status of global financial center. Let the market decide. By doing so, people preserve the freedom to price assets so that resources, capital and human, are directed to the best ends.
If Hong Kong strives for an even greater global financial center, the details for how it actually works require business minds and entrepreneurial guts from the private sector, not the government.
Hong Kong's future is anybody's imagination, but the road of planning is likely to lead to a dead end.
HSI Constituents in 1967
Allied Inv
China Light
China Provident
City Hotels
Dairy Farm
G I Cement
HK & China Gas
HK & S Hotels
HK Aircraft
HK Bank
HK Dock
HK Electric
HK Land
HK Realty 'A'
HK Telephone
HK Tramways
HK Wharf
HK Yaumati
Hutchison
Jar Matheson
Jar Securities
Kln Motor Bus
Lane Crawford 'A'
Nanyang
San Miguel
S-Sea Textile
Star Ferry
Swire Pacific 'A'
Tex Alliance
W Marden 'A'
W Maritime 'A'
Watsons
Copyrights Quamnet
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