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意外，在我來說一點也不陌生。它發生了就是。攝於灣仔海旁。

兄弟、姊妹。如果你有兄弟、姊妹，可有留意，當你們一起外去，路人是何等輕易地認出你們的關係。兄弟、姊妹生下來相貌相似，是多麼微妙的事情。我有時想，每個人都有眼耳口鼻，全球四十億人每人一個樣，簡易如眼耳口鼻竟然可以拼湊出四十億不同組合。而當中兄弟姊妹卻似樣，是多麼寶貴，尤其是當大家都老了，各走自己的人生路，相貌也許隨著際遇和心境而變，但當走在一起，始終是一套的。攝於電氣道。

萬千寵愛在一身。小朋友啊，讓叔叔告訴你一個殘酷的現實，你不是王帝。聽了，你可能有點不快，不過，知道得早總好過遲。攝於工展會。

添叔

十幾年來首次回鄉探親，滄海桑田。少時數度回鄉，每次出門阿爸都說:「去找阿添，佢大你幾歲，你應叫佢...佢係你...阿叔。」就這樣，茶怪與添叔相識多年，阿爺個兄弟個仔就是他，這個家族關係flow chart，茶怪最近才敲得清楚。

阿爸口中的老家沒有一個是壞人，但對於年少的茶怪可不是。小茶怪覺得鄉下人都很貪心，總是要求你送甚麼，從舊衣服到彩色電視機，有次阿爸買了一雙新波鞋給一位小朋友，小茶怪氣壞了，他們那麼貪心，老是要人家的東西，為何還送波鞋給他們 ! 添叔帶小茶怪到處玩，小茶怪都不太在乎，反正回鄉只是阿爸吩咐的例行公事。上次臨走，添叔問茶怪可否把隨身的walkman留給他，茶怪斷言拒絕，心想，是我的為什麼要給你!

一轉眼就十幾年，週六茶怪帶茶太和弟弟回鄉祭祖，想不到當年劉華「天長地久」長毛look的添叔已變了平頭裝黎智英look，是一家小型工廠的老闆。添叔帶茶怪三人到處走，四驅車取代了已往的單車，全程三餐膳食由他結帳，不是很豪華的餐館，但食物和節目悉心安排，談做生意、投資、信用卡、講教育理想等，walkman的事沒有再提。

臨別時茶怪感到不好意思麻煩了添叔一個週末，邀請他到香港旅遊，說冒必盡地主之誼，好好安排，誰不知他對這邊的購物商店和主題公園不為所動，答: 「生意很忙，走不開。」還道: 「再回來吧，我們都是一家人。」

10分鐘內，你做到幾多?

攝於大型百貨公司內的一間快速理髮店，這位小朋友在10分鐘的理髮過程中，閱讀由爸爸舉著的英文書。從圖中三個人的不同視線可以看到他們的不同目標，在10分鐘的時間內不容有失。

髮型師哥哥合緊咀巴剪剪剪。小朋友動彈不得，讀讀讀。爸爸: 阿仔阿仔，比心機。 這個組合亦很講求合作性，髮型師哥哥要盡量避免打擾小朋友。小朋友看書又只可以移動眼球而不可搖頭。爸爸亦盡力保持手臂的定力，還要準備隨時翻開下一頁。而髮型師和爸爸要有默契，待師傅剪完一邊頭髮之際，迅速來個交叉走位，對掉位置，好讓師傅剪另一邊頭髮。

10分鐘時間，一把剪刀，一本書，三個人，交織出一幕緊張剌激的現實版「生死時速」。

Buy Mama A Stock

What are you getting for your mom this Sunday? Probably, you have bought her a handbag, a necklace, a blender and again another handbag as in the past so-many Mother's Days. For this coming special day, buy her something special, if you don't mind it being secondhand -- a stock. A good stock is more appreciable in value than jewelry, and certainly, more durable than a handbag. Still more, it could be more exciting than a blender.

There are many different stocks to shop around for, depending on what you think she needs.

If it is for her savings, the stock that has long-term prospects suits her investment profile. She would unlikely dump a gift you send her. Therefore, the stock should also provide a nice dividend yield for her recurring income.

A banking stock will do. HSBC #5 is a luxurious gift for $50,000 per a board lot of 400 shares, at $125. i am pretty sure she would like it. If you get her a Cartier watch, she would probably say you have wasted the money. But i bet she won't say so should the money be spent on HSBC shares.

Hang Seng Bank #11 is more affordable, for $10,650 per board lot. It offers a 4.9% dividend yield, at $106.5, but only modest growth prospects. It has a price-earnings multiple of 18. HSBC, at $126, trading at about 14 times prospective earnings and yielding 4.4%, is preferred.

If the gift is to bring her excitement, your pick should provide a sense of ownership for a business that she appreciates. After all, owning a stock is not different from owning a share of a business. The gift could be shares of TVB #511, Tong Ren Tang #8069, Wing On #289, Lam Soon #411 and etc. Again mind the minimum price for an investment in TVB.

Whenever she turns on the TV, she will realize that she owns a bit of the broadcast business. Nevertheless, she will not have the voting rights for the ending of the dramas, or the choice of news anchors. What a pity!

Does the recent share price rally have anything to do with the successful Korean big-hit "Jewel in the Palace"?

TVB traditionally trades at premium valuations, probably due to its prominent market presence. At $39.9 per share, it trades at about 21 times prospective earnings, not particularly attractive. Maybe, leave it for the next Mother's Day.

Tong Ren Tang would be an interesting pick. Listed in 2000, this Chinese-medicine company has a strong balance sheet, a proven track record, rising dividend payouts and strong branding. At $14.75 per share, Tong Ren Tang trades at an undemanding 13.2 times prospective earnings. For the first quarter of the year, net profit rose a mild 4% from the same period last year. The recent weakness of the share provides buying opportunities.

Moms, receiving this gift, might suddenly become more health-conscious than ever. For those who have already been loyal customers, they would comfortably hold the shares.

Quam has recommended Wing On for quite a while. i won't bother to repeat why. One should be aware that its major profits come from rental income, rather than its legendary department store business, which recorded losses in 2003. Office rents in Hong Kong and Australia are important factors to look at.

On the other hand, while Lam Soon is famous for its "Knife" and "Red Lantern" brand edible oils as well as "AXE" and "Labour" brand detergent, its detergent business has been making losses. Mothers should have known what has gone wrong with its detergents.

Last but not least, you may buy her your favorite pick and show her what a brilliant investor you are. And let her share the profits from the hard work in your research. She must be proud of you, unless your investment turns sour.

Wish you a wonderful Sunday with your family. From then on, perhaps, investment will become a hot talking point.

(Disclosure of interest: I hold shares in HSBC)
May 5, 2005
Copyright Quamnet

The Economic Parents

Acting chief executive Donald Tsang last month encouraged people to have three children. Many people laughed at the idea, saying that the top official doesn't understand households' financial constraints. Giving birth to one kid is already forbiddingly costly, some believe, let alone having three kids. Some couples even say they do not want their kids to suffer the pains of this world, and therefore, they would rather have none. Nevertheless, as the Hong Kong economy bottomed out in 2003 and people are gaining confidence about job security, there are signs that people are more willing to have babies.

A friend of mine, one day, sought my advice from the economic point of view how many kids she has got to have, after giving birth to her first a few months ago. We both agree that giving a new life is so meaningful that the decision is beyond any cost-and-benefit analyses. Nowadays, the younger generation of parents does not expect kids to support them financially, like the older generation did, thanks to improved welfare benefits and better financial planning for retirement. Some parents would rather not give their kids any burdens, foreseeing a tougher working environment in the future.

Still, family members are the people closest to us. They take care of one another. The help could be financial, physical and spiritual. Below is an abstract from the conversation between the friend and i, which hopefully offers you more than a laugh-- or some economic concepts.

Economies of scale
Economies of scale are realized when parents have more than one kid, because baby brothers and sisters could share the shoes, clothes, toys, strollers and beds, one at each time. The costs for each baby can be reduced.

Diversification of risks
No matter what, parents must have certain expectations for their sons and daughters. There is no guarantee that their first kid can meet them. The parents might think of splitting their bets. Diversification of risks applies. It sounds a bit coldhearted, but it was certainly useful in earlier history when mortality rates were high. Today, parents become more focused on one or two kids.

Diminishing returns
If the parents expect some returns, financial, physical and/or spiritual support, the return would unlikely increase in proportional to the number of kids they have. They are likely to experience a diminishing return for every additional kid they raise. Simply speaking, in a holiday gathering, some brothers and sisters do not show up because they know the others will go. Of course, from the children's point of view, they easily share the responsibilities.

Public assets
In the worst case, the parents will become "public assets" when they have too many kids. This is sad, but it is hard reality. When so many, say six to ten, people share the responsibilities, no one will take them. They would just point fingers to the other brothers and sisters. Of course, there are exceptions in big families where each member takes their suitable roles.

Free riders
Those couples with no kids would be the free riders. Thanks to a post-war baby boom, a quarter of Hong Kong's population would be aged 65 or above by 2031, the government said. In the meantime, the proportion of the working class would shrink. Each taxpayer will take care of more elderly than he does now. For those who have no kids and receive welfare benefits, they will have the support from the kids of someone else.

From the analyses above, it seems that one would prefer to have either no kids or a few kids, rather than only one offspring or too many children.

Dollar cost averaging
Dollar cost averaging is a strategy in which an investor buys shares one tranche at a time over a long period. Personally, i am a product of dollar cost averaging. My parents have three children. My elder sister Charlotte is five years older than i. Younger brother Rex is nine years younger than i. My parents managed to spread the costs of raising three children over more than 14 years. "Dollar cost averaging" could be a solution for those who cannot afford to raise more than one child at any point of time.


Inflation is really concerning parents. Particularly, the costs of raising kids appear to inflate much faster than the general consumer prices. Parents have to make all the choices. They include whether to give birth in a public or private hospital and whether to hire a babysitter or not. When the kids get older, the parents might have to look for play-groups in which their kids can learn English story telling, playing piano or painting. According to the parents, these extra-curriculum activities are important for the children to get enrolled in good schools. Such training can be painfully costly.

Some parents also consider buying a bigger car and a bigger house because of the kids. How the parents raise their kids, it seems, reflects their own expectations of life. With the parents' living standards improving, they want to give their kids the best. That's nothing wrong, as long as they can afford it. But i suspect that there are things money can't buy. As a kid, the poorest and thriftiest years were those i enjoyed the most.

For those who do not want kids solely because they don't want them to suffer, they should ask themselves whether they have ever enjoyed life for a second. i thank my mum and dad for bringing me to this world, one that has both goodness and badness.

Apr 6, 2005
Copyright Quamnet