金->股

年初，說過看好黃金的投資價值，現在，改變了看法，自己也減持了。當初看好的原因是美國大印銀紙，貨幣供應增加，通脤令黃金、商品、房產以及其他投資工具升值。現在全球信貸緊縮，即使各大央行聯手救市，也是杯水車薪。近年的升幅也可能消失。雖然金價近期因作為避難所角色而上升，但這種恐慌導致的升勢，屬於短暫。售金套現，保留現金，和開始吸納股票，是我現在做的。股票雖然有很多壞消息，但價值十分吸引。

Mickey Mouse's Philosophy

The editorial of today's Hong Kong Economic Journal said US Fed chief Ben Bernanke would have to cut interest rates tonight as if a recession would be the end of the world. i would call such an attitude "Mickey Mouse's Philosophy". A doll that it is, Mickey Mouse always smiles, as if he can never allow himself to feel bad. But what's wrong for feeling bad? It is completely natural and inevitable. It even helps us to set ourselves straight. Like the bad feel, despite its hardship, recession serves that end, after decades of overconsumption. Bernanke, by keeping American smiling for the time being, is to bring them a more pain in the future. The extension of a business cycle could save the presidency of a political party, but it would be done at the expense of all people, including Americans and all others. "It is the economy, stupid!" as the Bill Clinton campaign once cried. What Mr. Bernanke seems to be devoted to, and what the newspaper ironically seems to approve, is merely the timing of a business cycle, not the economy -- people's well-being.

金

2008年，茶怪看好黃金，美聯儲局受政治勢力影響大印美鈔，其他中央銀行又因勢因勢利導放寬銀根，貨幣供應遠遠跑贏經濟增長，令全球主要貨幣貶值。在多銀紙追逐有限產品服務的情況下，通漲壓力增加，可是，貿易全球化加上科技進步，提升了普遍產品和服務的生產效率，成本的減省抵銷了物價因貨幣貶值而上升的壓力，因此，消費物價指數一直維持在可以接受的水平，除了中國，其他主要工業國沒有政治壓力，要收緊銀根。可是，消費物價指數只反映經濟上的部份價格，以更宏觀的價格來看，包括地產、股票、債券和貨品，貨品包括石油、黃金、大豆等，的漲價來看，我們早以進入高通脹時代。全球央行和投資者都為持有美鈔怨聲載道，持其他貨幣一樣是貶值的，黃金這個幾千年來傳統的投資，是自然的選擇。