The Year of Lazy Pig

Pig is lazy. It sleeps and eats all day all over the place. It is sloppy, dirty and ugly -- outright unproductive, except for the value of its flesh. i miss the Year of Dog as it is winding down.

Dog is lovely. It is hardworking, detective, loyal, helpful, friendly, yet entertaining. Dog takes the jobs of security guard, foreman, first-aider, custom officer and hunters, while in most cases, people keep dog as pet and have a lot of fun with it. However, the rotation of Chinese Zodiac calendar fairly allows each of the 12 designated animals to have its own turn.

Chinese follow the tradition to associate the New Year's fortune with the characteristic of the zodiac animal the year belongs to. From Tiger's courage and Horse's energy, to Monkey's cleverness and Roast's high spirit, the distinctive features of most zodiac animals cheer us up. Unfortunately, Pig seems to lack its appeal.

Now, it is this uninteresting animal that is knocking the door. What a Pig Year we are about to see!

Yet, laziness is good for its own sake. At least, it is safe from destruction.

The recent Years of Pig, 1971, 1983 and 1995, shared the same bluntness as the hog. The stock market in 1995 was consolidating after 1994's plunge and would have two years to spare before the 1997 market crash. The Chinese companies making their listing debut in Hong Kong have invited a mania for them in early 1990's until their valuations become too high to sustain themselves. The property sector, the pivot of the Hong Kong economy, also saw its upward trend halt in 1994 when the government tightened its regulations. Therefore, its precedent Dog, 1994, had already taken care of the hopes and distresses before the Pig arrived in 1995. Pig had nothing left to do but healing the wounds.

Let's turn the Zodiac wheel around and get back to 1983. The stock market had already plunged two years earlier in the midst of uncertainty about the sovereign of Hong Kong after 1997. The year of 1983 saw the stock market flat. A year later, the British and Chinese government came to an agreement about the handover, and another wave of bull market emerged.

Further, Pig's visit in 1971 saw the market heating up, but the boom did not kick off until the following year.

In a nutshell, Lazy Pig jumped over the whole decade of 1960's, an era of political unrest. It skipped the worldwide energy crises in mid-1970's. Lazy Pig can't recall how the 1987 markets crashed in the U.S. and Hong Kong. It was absent during the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crises as well. It might be sleeping that Sunday afternoon in July 2003 when half a million of people took the street, demanding democracy.

Lazy Pig hates surprise, positive or negative. Turbulence just can't fit the calm of Lazy Pig. At least, the recent history in Hong Kong confirms the tranquility in Pig Year.

The affection toward stability by Lazy Pig did something good to Hong Kong. In 1983, the dollar peg was established. Before that, the Hong Kong dollar had fluctuated freely and had worryingly depreciated. Although it has drawn criticism in recently year, for its lack of flexibility, the dollar peg has played a crucial role for the stability of the financial system and the confidence of investors ever since.

Besides, some "mysterious forces" surrounding Lazy Pig boosts enterperneurship. Jimmy Lai launched Apply Daily newspaper in 1995 and the media industry would never be the same. i remember that my editor told me to follow Apply Daily as the role model when i joined a well-established newspaper in 1996 -- one year following Apple Daily's birth.

The year that Li Ka-shing founded his property flagship Cheung Kong was Pig -- 1971. That year was proven to be critical for Cheung Kong's development in the 1970's. Cheung Kong floated its shares in the stock exchange just in time to catch the market boom in 1972. The market crashed in 1973. Had it missed the chance, SK Li would have to wait for another boom. Unfortunately, Lee Shaw Kee missed that chance, and he waited for almost ten years before he got his flagship Henderson Land listed.

Those "mysterious forces" also favored the personal career in 1995. Donald Tsang was promoted to become the Financial Secretary, which prepared him for taking the challenges against financial crises three years later -- he did "get the job done", as he would be happy to recall these days.

Although these moves in career and business development seemed to be a natural step forward, as Lazy Pig hates surprises, these moves proved to be important to Hong Kong's media and financial health.

Will 2007 be another peaceful Pig Year? This Zodiac analysis contrasts with the financial point of view that i stated in the previous articles. Will Lazy Pig get burnt and become a delicious barbecued food?

Should Zodiac calendar ever have any impact on the reality, Lazy Pig would place its blessing on the enterperneurship, as it did. That's important because we have long missed that the successful business stories as those of KS Li and Jimmy Lai. Critics say that it has become more and more difficult for Hong Kong people to climb up the social and capital ladder. Has the business environment changed in a way that it no longer favors enterperneurship? i would study this topic and share my views with you later.

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